Land use and land cover dynamics in relation to human dimensions in part of the Indus river basin India

Abstract

Land cover is the primary variable that has a direct impact on the regional or global ecosystem. Any change in land cover either through the natural process of evolution or human interventions has far-reaching corollaries for the environment at all levels. Thus characterizing and understanding the past pattern of change is essential for assessing potential environmental impacts in the future at various spatial and temporal scales. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) to trace the past pattern of land use change by studying the drivers of change at the site and (2) to project their influence on land cover scenarios in the future using explicit simulation models. The unique physiography of the Indus river basin in India (montane ecosystem and tropical plains) makes it an ideal study area. Optical remote sensing interpretations of multi-temporal satellite images, from Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS), LISS-I and LISS-III (1985 2005), were used to create and assess a past land use database and the trajectories of change in the study area at a scale of 1:250,000. Major land use changes during the period were a decrease in the area of cropland and increase in the built-up area and wasteland. Land cover changes included decreases in the areas under vegetation and under permanent snow with an increase in the extent grassland and barren land. Details of both bio-physical and human-induced drivers were obtained from various secondary sources in order to evaluate their pattern and their influence on local land cover. The land use vs driver relationship was reviewed using the ERDAS IMAGINE (version 2010), IDRISI and ArcGIS (version 10.1) software packages, along with analytical tools in Microsoft Office. The significant drivers of change were the climatic factors and elevation, among the natural factors, and population growth and socio-economic developments, among the human-induced catalysts. A special attempt was undertaken to integrate various socio-economic parameters of the study area identified.