Electricity demand forecasting and market allocation for energy sources in India

Abstract

Indian electrical energy scenario is characterized by a peak power shortage of 25.4% with an all India average of 11.7% and the energy shortage up to 20% with an all India average of 7.4%.Due to higher growth of Indian economy, it will be essential to add to our present electrical power generation capacity not only to overcome the demand supply gap, but to provide enough electricity to various sectors of economy. The dominant energy source for electrical power generation, in India, is coal followed by large hydro, gas, renewable and nuclear. Rapid use of coal is prohibited by associated Green House Gas emissions and other aspects of environmental pollution. There is a need for an extremely indigenous use of energy sources for future electricity generation. This requires forecasting of future demand with reasonable accuracy and optimized allocation of energy sources to meet future demand for electrical energy. A mixed model of time series and econometric model has been developed to forecast the electricity requirement up to the year 2045. First, the independent variables i.e. various component of GDP s (Agriculture, Industry and Service), number of consumers in various economic sectors and price indices of electricity have been forecasted by using autoregressive time series method. After that, a logarithmic linear econometric model has been developed to forecast electricity requirement in various sectors of economy up to the year 2045.SPSS 14.0 software has been used to forecast the variables. The results show a gap of 70% between demand and supply in the year 2045 for business as usual scenario (BAU). Energy conservation is a holistic approach to reduce energy demand. A very large amount of energy can be saved by energy conservation as estimated by Bureau of Energy Efficiency and Power Ministry of India. In this work, various scenarios have been developed for energy conservation.