Study of role of growth components of silk production in independent India with emphasis on Tasar A Statistical approach

Abstract

The present study is attempted to analyze the descriptive statistics, compound growth rate, instability index and forecasting of silk production using time series data collected from various sources for the period 1951-2019. The results show that the compound growth rate of raw silk production for the world, China, India, Uzbekistan and North Korea were found to increase annually by 3.41, 3.57, 4.30, 2.63, and 4.04 percent per annum for the period 2000-2018. On the other hand raw silk production in Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam and Japan are declining by 3.92, 1.77, 0.72 and 16.06 percent per annum respectively. The raw silk production in India was increased by 5.41 percent per annum with average production 10406 tons, minimum (894 tons) and maximum (35468 tons) for the period 1951-2019. The instability indexes for Mulberry and Tasar silk were estimated 21.24 and 102.23 for the period 1951-52 to 2018-19. The Tasar silk shows high variation due to number of turning points during the period. The silk export earnings have made a phenomenal progress which amounted to Rs. 70 crore in 1981-82 increased by more than thirty fold to Rs. 2100 crore in 2018-19. The average export earnings from silk products was recorded Rs. 1529.64 crore with 72.41 percent variation and 9.40 percent growth rate for the period 1981-2019. The cubic trend model was found best fitted for different components of silk production. Based on forecasting models, India is supposed to produce 62703 metric tons total raw silk, 49973 metric tons mulberry raw silk and 7031 metric tons tasar raw silk by the end of 2029-30. The socioeconomic study conducted for 500 farmers in West Singhbhum district of Jharkhand shows positive correlation between adoption rate and cocoon yield. Average monthly gross income of a woman reeler worked out to Rs. 3074 after working on an average 27 days in a month. The findings of this study will be helpful for government policy makers, exports, producers and importing countries. newline