DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INDIAS EXPORTS 1980 to 2016

Abstract

The international trade flows have been dramatically expanding due to the newlinegrowing integration of the world economies and have experienced spectacular newlinechanges over the past few decades. For that reason, the present study attempts to newlineexamine the dynamics of structural changes in India s exports over the 1980-2016 newlineperiod. Through the analysis of trends and patterns of India s merchandise newlineexports, the study finds that there is a declining share of primary products while newlinethe share of manufactured goods and petroleum products have increased. Further, newlinethe analysis of the direction of India s exports reveals diversification especially newlinetowards South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa during the study period. The newlinecurrent study also extends analysis of Indian exports in terms of technological newlineintensity over the 1980-2016 period. The results show that the exports of all said newlineemerging economies have a large technological base owing to their significant newlineinvestments in RandD and open-door policies. While the figures of Indian exports newlinealso show a steady though slow technological upgradation from low-tech to newlinemedium and high-tech exports but when compared to the standards of these newlineemerging economies, are low. newlineFurther the study employs Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and newlineConstant Market Share (CMS) analysis for the ten exports destinations namely newlineOECD, EU, USA, OPEC, UAE, Africa, Asia, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, newlineand West and Central Asia. Results of RCA shows that India has a comparative newlineadvantage in the exports of primary products in the markets of OECD, EU, USA, newlineiv newlineand OPEC. While in the markets of UAE, Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and newlineWest and Central Asia, India has a comparative advantage in the exports of both newlineprimary and manufactured products. The analysis further observes that the newlinemaximum number of commodities with a comparative advantage among all the newlineexport destinations are concentrated in UAE, Africa and Asia (except East Asia). newlineWhile the results of the Market Effect (ME) and Market Adaptation Effect (MAE) newline