Stability and change in voting behaviour measuring volatility among Indian voters

Abstract

This research on stability and change in voting behaviour stems from the evolving nature of the party system in India. Over time, the party system has undergone significant changes. These changes have deeply changed the country s political landscape leading to emergence of new political parties while weakening the influence of some established players. India has undergone a transformation in both its party system and voters behaviour and participation. The electoral arena of the country has displayed distinct patterns of both stability and volatility. However, this change was at the net aggregate level. The question that came up during this exploration was: what about the stability and shifts at the individual voter level in terms of his/her voting choices over a period? How do voters determine whether to alter their loyalty or maintain allegiance to the party they supported in the previous election? The main objective of this research was to explore the determinants influencing vote choice among both stable and volatile voters in India. It aimed to determine whether these factors vary across different periods of political change. This study shifts the focus from aggregate analysis of changes in the party system to a more detailed examination of voting behaviour at the individual level and its broader implications. The study adopted quantitative methodology using the extensive dataset from the National Election Studies conducted by Lokniti CSDS. For this study, I focused on the election years 1967, 2009, and 2014, as these elections produced varied results. newline