Optimization of Water Resources Systems for Flood Management and Flood Risk Assessment

Abstract

Floods pose significant challenges to communities and ecosystems, necessitating effective newlineflood management strategies. This thesis presents an in-depth investigation into flood peak newlineoptimization and AI-based flood management techniques, with a focus on the Tapi River newlinebasin in Gujarat, India. The research encompasses a comprehensive methodology involving newlinedata collection, future Land Use Land Cover scenarios, Hydrological analysis, model newlinecalibration and validation, flood level prediction, AI-based optimizations, and flood impact newlineassessment. newlineLULC change analysis was carried out to understand the dynamics of landscapes and the newlineenvironmental implications of human activities. In this study, LULC change analysis was newlineconducted for the Tapi River basin between the years 2001 and 2050, using ArcMap and newlineTerrSet software. Four time periods were examined: 2001-2010, 2001-2015, 2001-2030, and newline2001-2050. The results of the analysis revealed significant shifts in the LULC patterns over newlinethe years. It is predicted that in the years 2020, 2030 and 2050, there will be notable newlinevariations in water bodies, forest cover, agriculture, barren lands, and built-up area with newlinedecreasing trends in the area of water bodies and forest cover and increasing trends in the newlinearea of agriculture, barren land and built-up area. newlineHEC-RAS 2D model was used for obtaining the water level due to the change in LULC in newlinethe Lower Tapi basin. The flood peaks for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 were determined newlinewith the help of the predicted LULC image. The combination of the HEC-RAS 2D model newlineand the LULC change analysis in the Lower Tapi region yields important insights into flood newlinepeak optimization and flood management strategies. The predicted increase in built-up and newlinexxiii newlinebarren land, coupled with the corresponding decrease in agriculture, water, and forest, has newlinesignificant implications for flood dynamics in the area. newlineThe flood peak predictions based on the LULC change analysis show a clear trend of newlineincreasing flood peaks over the years.